“Inside CKD” Multinational-Microsimulation Modelling Insights Into the Increasing CKD Burden

Abstract

Introduction: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects approximately 1 in 10 people worldwide and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, yet it remains underdiagnosed, undertreated, and underrecognized compared with other noncommunicable diseases. Methods: The Inside CKD program uses a microsimulation model to project the clinical and economic burden of CKD. Here, we assessed published Inside CKD data, from 31 countries and regions, in the context of existing guidelines, recommendations, and other global initiatives. Results: Our findings highlight that, if current low rates of diagnosis are maintained, the CKD population is projected to increase by 5.8%, with associated health care costs increasing by 9.3%, by 2027. Screening for CKD is also projected to be cost-effective and to modestly increase life expectancy. Conclusion: Implementing screening and treatment strategies will be crucial for the early identification of CKD and for overcoming the current clinical inertia around the diagnosis and management of CKD.