Protocol for a Single-Arm Pilot Clinical Trial: Developing and Evaluating a Machine Learning Opioid Prediction & Risk-Stratification E-Platform (DEMONSTRATE)

Abstract

Background/Objectives: The Developing and Evaluating a Machine Learning Opioid Prediction & Risk-Stratification E-Platform (DEMONSTRATE) trial aims to assess the usability, acceptability, feasibility, and effectiveness of implementing a machine learning (ML)-based clinical decision support (CDS) tool-the Overdose Prevention Alert-which predicts a patient's risk of opioid overdose within three months. Methods: This single-arm study uses a pre-post implementation design with mixed-methods evaluation in 13 University of Florida Health, Gainesville, internal medicine and family medicine clinics. Eligible patients are aged ≥18 years, received an opioid prescription within the year prior to their upcoming primary care visit, are not receiving hospice care, do not have a malignant cancer diagnosis, and are identified by the ML algorithm as high risk for overdose. The Overdose Prevention Alert triggers when a primary care provider (PCP) signs an opioid order in electronic health records. We will evaluate effectiveness by comparing pre- and post-implementation outcomes using a composite patient-level measure defined by the presence of any of the following 6 favorable indicators: (1) evidence of naloxone access; (2) absence of opioid overdose diagnoses and naloxone administration; (3) absence of emergency department (ED) visits or hospitalizations due to opioid overdose or opioid use disorder (OUD); (4) absence of overlapping opioid and benzodiazepine use within a 7-day window; (5) absence of opioid use ≥50 morphine milligram equivalent daily average; (6) receipt of referrals to non-pharmacological pain management. Additional quantitative metrics will include alert penetration, usage patterns, and clinical actions taken. Usability and acceptability will be assessed using a 12-item questionnaire for PCPs and semi-structured interviews. Expected Results: The trial will provide insights into real-world ML-driven CDS implementation and inform future strategies to reduce opioid-related harm.