Beyond the Boom: Integrating Immigrant Talent to Secure Indiana's Economic Future

Abstract

According to the Indiana Business Research Center’s (IBRC) projections, Indiana's natural increase is expected to decline over the next forty years (Kinghorn, 2024). The main factors driving this decline in natural increase are an aging population, low fertility rates (annual births), and rising mortality among working-age individuals, partly due to “deaths of despair” (mortality from drug overdoses, alcohol-related liver diseases, and suicides), which are linked to social and economic hardships (Stone, 2020). IBRC predicts that 67 of the 92 counties in Indiana will see a population decline due to a decrease in natural increase. Over the next few decades, Indiana’s population is unlikely to surpass 7.1 million, as deaths will consistently outweigh births (Kinghorn, 2024). “To avoid demographic decline, Indiana must swiftly adopt measures to address three key drivers of population change: mortality, fertility, and appeal to immigrants” (Stone, 2020, p. 6). Specifically, attracting new residents is crucial because the benefits from the post-pandemic immigration surge appear unsustainable, and Indiana’s population is expected to grow at a much slower rate in the coming years (Kinghorn, 2025). This paper explores the intersection of immigration as a driver of population growth in Indiana and its implications for workforce development policies.