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Item Index60 Is Superior to HbA1c for Identifying Individuals at High Risk for Type 1 Diabetes(Oxford University Press, 2022) Jacobsen, Laura M.; Bundy, Brian N.; Ismail, Heba M.; Clements, Mark; Warnock, Megan; Geyer, Susan; Schatz, Desmond A.; Sosenko, Jay M.; Pediatrics, School of MedicineContext: HbA1c from ≥ 5.7% to < 6.5% (39-46 mmol/mol) indicates prediabetes according to American Diabetes Association guidelines, yet its identification of prediabetes specific for type 1 diabetes has not been assessed. A composite glucose and C-peptide measure, Index60, identifies individuals at high risk for type 1 diabetes. Objective: We compared Index60 and HbA1c thresholds as markers for type 1 diabetes risk. Methods: TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants with ≥ 2 autoantibodies (GADA, IAA, IA-2A, or ZnT8A) who had oral glucose tolerance tests and HbA1c measurements underwent 1) predictive time-dependent modeling of type 1 diabetes risk (n = 2776); and 2) baseline comparisons between high-risk mutually exclusive groups: Index60 ≥ 2.04 (n = 268) vs HbA1c ≥ 5.7% (n = 268). The Index60 ≥ 2.04 threshold was commensurate in ordinal ranking with the standard prediabetes threshold of HbA1c ≥ 5.7%. Results: In mutually exclusive groups, individuals exceeding Index60 ≥ 2.04 had a higher cumulative incidence of type 1 diabetes than those exceeding HbA1c ≥ 5.7% (P < 0.0001). Appreciably more individuals with Index60 ≥ 2.04 were at stage 2, and among those at stage 2, the cumulative incidence was higher for those with Index60 ≥ 2.04 (P = 0.02). Those with Index60 ≥ 2.04 were younger, with lower BMI, greater autoantibody number, and lower C-peptide than those with HbA1c ≥ 5.7% (P < 0.0001 for all comparisons). Conclusion: Individuals with Index60 ≥ 2.04 are at greater risk for type 1 diabetes with features more characteristic of the disorder than those with HbA1c ≥ 5.7%. Index60 ≥ 2.04 is superior to the standard HbA1c ≥ 5.7% threshold for identifying prediabetes in autoantibody-positive individuals. These findings appear to justify using Index60 ≥ 2.04 as a prediabetes criterion in this population.Item Oral Glucose Tolerance Test Measures of First-phase Insulin Response and Their Predictive Ability for Type 1 Diabetes(Oxford University Press, 2022) Baidal, David A.; Warnock, Megan; Xu, Ping; Geyer, Susan; Marks, Jennifer B.; Moran, Antoinette; Sosenko, Jay; Evans-Molina, Carmella; Pediatrics, School of MedicineContext: Decreased first-phase insulin response (FPIR) during intravenous glucose tolerance testing (IVGTT) is an early indicator of β-cell dysfunction and predictor of type 1 diabetes (T1D). Objective: Assess whether oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) measures could serve as FPIR alternatives in their ability to predict T1D in autoantibody positive (Aab+) subjects. Design: OGTT and IVGTT were performed within 30 days of each other. Eleven OGTT variables were evaluated for (1) correlation with FPIR and (2) T1D prediction. Setting: Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet "Oral Insulin for Prevention of Diabetes in Relatives at Risk for T1D" (TN-07) and Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Diabetes (DPT-1) studies clinical sites. Patients: TN-07 (n = 292; age 9.4 ± 6.1 years) and DPT-1 (n = 194; age 15.1 ± 10.0 years) Aab + relatives of T1D individuals. Main outcome measures: (1) Correlation coefficients of OGTT measures with FPIR and (2) T1D prediction at 2 years using area under receiver operating characteristic (ROCAUC) curves. Results: Index60 showed the strongest correlation in DPT-1 (r = -0.562) but was weaker in TN-07 (r = -0.378). C-peptide index consistently showed good correlation with FPIR across studies (TN-07, r = 0.583; DPT-1, r = 0.544; P < 0.0001). Index60 and C-peptide index had the highest ROCAUCs for T1D prediction (0.778 vs 0.717 in TN-07 and 0.763 vs 0.721 in DPT-1, respectively; P = NS), followed by FPIR (0.707 in TN-07; 0.628 in DPT-1). Conclusions: C-peptide index was the strongest measure to correlate with FPIR in both studies. Index60 and C-peptide index had the highest predictive accuracy for T1D and were comparable. OGTTs could be considered instead of IVGTTs for subject stratification in T1D prevention trials.Item The risk of progression to type 1 diabetes is highly variable in individuals with multiple autoantibodies following screening(Springer Verlag, 2020-03) Jacobsen, Laura M.; Bocchino, Laura; Evans-Molina, Carmella; DiMeglio, Linda; Goland, Robin; Wilson, Darrell M.; Atkinson, Mark A.; Aye, Tandy; Russell, William E.; Wentworth, John M.; Boulware, David; Geyer, Susan; Sosenko, Jay M.; Medicine, School of MedicineAims/hypothesis: Young children who develop multiple autoantibodies (mAbs) are at very high risk for type 1 diabetes. We assessed whether a population with mAbs detected by screening is also at very high risk, and how risk varies according to age, type of autoantibodies and metabolic status. Methods: Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention participants with mAbs (n = 1815; age, 12.35 ± 9.39 years; range, 1-49 years) were analysed. Type 1 diabetes risk was assessed according to age, autoantibody type/number (insulin autoantibodies [IAA], glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies [GADA], insulinoma-associated antigen-2 autoantibodies [IA-2A] or zinc transporter 8 autoantibodies [ZnT8A]) and Index60 (composite measure of fasting C-peptide, 60 min glucose and 60 min C-peptide). Cox regression and cumulative incidence curves were utilised in this cohort study. Results: Age was inversely related to type 1 diabetes risk in those with mAbs (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.96, 0.99]). Among participants with 2 autoantibodies, those with GADA had less risk (HR 0.35 [95% CI 0.22, 0.57]) and those with IA-2A had higher risk (HR 2.82 [95% CI 1.76, 4.51]) of type 1 diabetes. Those with IAA and GADA had only a 17% 5 year risk of type 1 diabetes. The risk was significantly lower for those with Index60 <1.0 (HR 0.23 [95% CI 0.19, 0.30]) vs those with Index60 values ≥1.0. Among the 12% (225/1815) ≥12.0 years of age with GADA positivity, IA-2A negativity and Index60 <1.0, the 5 year risk of type 1 diabetes was 8%. Conclusions/interpretation: Type 1 diabetes risk varies substantially according to age, autoantibody type and metabolic status in individuals screened for mAbs. An appreciable proportion of older children and adults with mAbs appear to have a low risk of progressing to type 1 diabetes at 5 years. With this knowledge, clinical trials of type 1 diabetes prevention can better target those most likely to progress.