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Item Effect of Canagliflozin on Total Cardiovascular Burden in Patients With Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease: A Post Hoc Analysis From the CREDENCE Trial(American Heart Association, 2022) Li, Jing-Wei; Arnott, Clare; Heerspink, Hiddo J.L.; Li, Qiang; Cannon, Christopher P.; Wheeler, David C.; Charytan, David M.; Barraclough, Jennifer; Figtree, Gemma A.; Agarwal, Rajiv; Bakris, George; de Zeeuw, Dick; Greene, Tom; Levin, Adeera; Pollock, Carol; Zhang, Hong; Zinman, Bernard; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; Perkovic, Vlado; Neal, Bruce; Jardine, Meg J.; Medicine, School of MedicineBackground: The sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor canagliflozin reduced the risk of first cardiovascular composite events in the CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation) trial. In this post hoc analysis, we evaluated the effect of canagliflozin on total (first and recurrent) cardiovascular events. Methods and Results: The CREDENCE trial compared canagliflozin or matching placebo in 4401 patients with type 2 diabetes, albuminuria, and estimated glomerular filtration rate of 30 to <90 mL/min per 1.73 m2, over a median of 2.6 years. The primary outcome was analyzed as a composite of any cardiovascular event including myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, hospitalization for unstable angina, and cardiovascular death. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the effect of canagliflozin on the net burden of cardiovascular events. During the trial, 634 patients had 883 cardiovascular events, of whom 472 (74%) had just 1 cardiovascular event and 162 (26%) had multiple cardiovascular events. Canagliflozin reduced first cardiovascular events by 26% (hazard ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.63–0.86]; P<0.001) and total cardiovascular events by 29% (incidence rate ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.59–0.86]; P<0.001). The absolute risk difference per 1000 patients treated over 2.5 years was −44 (95% CI, −67 to −21) first cardiovascular events and −73 (95% CI, −114 to −33) total events. Conclusions: Canagliflozin reduced cardiovascular events, with a larger absolute benefit for total cardiovascular than first cardiovascular events. These findings provide further support for the benefit of continuing canagliflozin therapy after an initial event to prevent recurrent cardiovascular events.Item Effects of Canagliflozin in Patients with Baseline eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2: Subgroup Analysis of the Randomized CREDENCE Trial(Wolters Kluwer, 2020-12-07) Bakris, George; Oshima, Megumi; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; Agarwal, Rajiv; Cannon, Christopher P.; Capuano, George; Charytan, David M.; de Zeeuw, Dick; Edwards, Robert; Greene, Tom; Heerspink, Hiddo J.L.; Levin, Adeera; Neal, Bruce; Oh, Richard; Pollock, Carol; Rosenthal, Norman; Wheeler, David C.; Zhang, Hong; Zinman, Bernard; Jardine, Meg J.; Perkovic, Vlado; Medicine, School of MedicineBackground and objectives: The Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation (CREDENCE) trial demonstrated that the sodium glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor canagliflozin reduced the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events in participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and CKD. Little is known about the use of SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2. The participants in the CREDENCE study had type 2 diabetes mellitus, a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio >300-5000 mg/g, and an eGFR of 30 to <90 ml/min per 1.73 m2 at screening. This post hoc analysis evaluated participants with eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 at randomization. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: Effects of eGFR slope through week 130 were analyzed using a piecewise, linear, mixed-effects model. Efficacy was analyzed in the intention-to-treat population, on the basis of Cox proportional hazard models, and safety was analyzed in the on-treatment population. At randomization (an average of 29 days after screening), 174 of 4401 (4%) participants had an eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (mean [SD] eGFR, 26 [3] ml/min per 1.73 m2). Results: From weeks 3 to 130, there was a 66% difference in the mean rate of eGFR decline with canagliflozin versus placebo (mean slopes, -1.30 versus -3.83 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year; difference, -2.54 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 4.17). Effects of canagliflozin on kidney, cardiovascular, and mortality outcomes were consistent for those with eGFR <30 and ≥30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (all P interaction >0.20). The estimate for kidney failure in participants with eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.27) was similar to those with eGFR ≥30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.91; P interaction=0.80). There was no imbalance in the rate of kidney-related adverse events or AKI associated with canagliflozin between participants with eGFR <30 and ≥30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (all P interaction >0.12). Conclusions: This post hoc analysis suggests canagliflozin slowed progression of kidney disease, without increasing AKI, even in participants with eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2.Item Effects of canagliflozin on cardiovascular, renal, and safety outcomes in participants with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease according to history of heart failure: Results from the CREDENCE trial(Elsevier, 2021) Sarraju, Ashish; Li, JingWei; Cannon, Christopher P.; Chang, Tara I.; Agarwal, Rajiv; Bakris, George; Charytan, David M.; de Zeeuw, Dick; Greene, Tom; Heerspink, Hiddo J. L.; Levin, Adeera; Neal, Bruce; Pollock, Carol; Wheeler, David C.; Yavin, Yshai; Zhang, Hong; Zinman, Bernard; Perkovic, Vlado; Jardine, Meg; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; Medicine, School of MedicineWe aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of canagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy according to prior history of heart failure in the Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation (CREDENCE) trial. We found that participants with a prior history of heart failure at baseline (15%) were more likely to be older, female, white, have a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and use diuretics and beta blockers (all P < .001), and that, compared with placebo, canagliflozin safely reduced renal and cardiovascular events with consistent effects in patients with and without a prior history of heart failure (all efficacy P interaction >.150). These results support the efficacy and safety of canagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy regardless of prior history of heart failure.Item Insights from CREDENCE trial indicate an acute drop in estimated glomerular filtration rate during treatment with canagliflozin with implications for clinical practice(Elsevier, 2021) Oshima, Megumi; Jardine, Meg J.; Agarwal, Rajiv; Bakris, George; Cannon, Christopher P.; Charytan, David M.; de Zeeuw, Dick; Edwards, Robert; Greene, Tom; Levin, Adeera; Lim, Soo Kun; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; Neal, Bruce; Pollock, Carol; Rosenthal, Norman; Wheeler, David C.; Zhang, Hong; Zinman, Bernard; Perkovic, Vlado; Heerspink, Hiddo J. L.; Medicine, School of MedicineCanagliflozin slows the progression of chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes and induces a reversible acute drop in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), believed to be a hemodynamic effect. Predictors of the initial drop and its association with long-term eGFR trajectories and safety outcomes are unknown. To assess this, we performed a post-hoc analysis of 4289 participants in the CREDENCE trial with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease equally split into treatment and placebo groups who had eGFR measured at both baseline and week three. The eGFR was categorized at week three as greater than a 10% decline; between 0 and 10% decline; and no decline. Long-term eGFR trajectories and safety outcomes were estimated in each category of acute eGFR change by linear mixed effects models and Cox regression after adjustment for baseline characteristics and medications use. Significantly more participants in the canagliflozin (45%) compared to the placebo (21%) group experienced an acute drop in eGFR over 10%. An over 30% drop occurred infrequently (4% of participants with canagliflozin and 2% with placebo). The odds ratio for a drop in eGFR over 10% with canagliflozin compared to placebo was significant at 3.03 (95% confidence interval 2.65, 3.47). Following the initial drop in eGFR, multivariable adjusted long-term eGFR trajectories, as well as overall and kidney safety profiles, in those treated with canagliflozin were similar across eGFR decline categories. Thus, although acute drops in eGFR over 10% occurred in nearly half of all participants following initiation of canagliflozin, the clinical benefit of canagliflozin was observed regardless. Additionally, safety outcomes were similar among subgroups of acute eGFR drop.Item Kidney, Cardiovascular, and Safety Outcomes of Canagliflozin according to Baseline Albuminuria: A CREDENCE Secondary Analysis(Wolters Kluwer, 2021) Jardine, Meg; Zhou, Zien; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J.; Hockham, Carinna; Li, Qiang; Agarwal, Rajiv; Bakris, George L.; Cannon, Christopher P.; Charytan, David M.; Greene, Tom; Levin, Adeera; Li, Jing-Wei; Neuen, Brendon L.; Neal, Bruce; Oh, Richard; Oshima, Megumi; Pollock, Carol; Wheeler, David C.; de Zeeuw, Dick; Zhang, Hong; Zinman, Bernard; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; Perkovic, Vlado; Medicine, School of MedicineBackground and objectives: The kidney protective effects of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors are greater in people with higher levels of albuminuria at treatment initiation. Whether this applies to sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors is uncertain, particularly in patients with a very high urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR; ≥3000 mg/g). We examined the association between baseline UACR and the effects of the SGLT2 inhibitor, canagliflozin, on efficacy and safety outcomes in the Canagliflozin and Renal Endpoints in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation (CREDENCE) randomized controlled trial. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: The study enrolled 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes, an eGFR of 30 to <90 ml/min per 1.73 m2, and UACR of >300 to 5000 mg/g. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we examined the relative and absolute effects of canagliflozin on kidney, cardiovascular, and safety outcomes according to a baseline UACR of ≤1000 mg/g (n=2348), >1000 to <3000 mg/g (n=1547), and ≥3000 mg/g (n=506). In addition, we examined the effects of canagliflozin on UACR itself, eGFR slope, and the intermediate outcomes of glycated hemoglobin, body weight, and systolic BP. Results: Overall, higher UACR was associated with higher rates of kidney and cardiovascular events. Canagliflozin reduced efficacy outcomes for all UACR levels, with no evidence that relative benefits varied between levels. For example, canagliflozin reduced the primary composite outcome by 24% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.56 to 1.04) in the lowest UACR subgroup, 28% (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.93) in the UACR subgroup >1000 to <3000 mg/g, and 37% (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.84) in the highest subgroup (Pheterogeneity=0.55). Absolute risk reductions for kidney outcomes were greater in participants with higher baseline albuminuria; the number of primary composite events prevented across ascending UACR categories were 17 (95% CI, 3 to 38), 45 (95% CI, 9 to 81), and 119 (95% CI, 35 to 202) per 1000 treated participants over 2.6 years (Pheterogeneity=0.02). Rates of kidney-related adverse events were lower with canagliflozin, with a greater relative reduction in higher UACR categories. Conclusions: Canagliflozin safely reduces kidney and cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes and severely increased albuminuria. In this population, the relative kidney benefits were consistent over a range of albuminuria levels, with greatest absolute kidney benefit in those with an UACR ≥3000 mg/g.Item Potential Effects of Elimination of the Black Race Coefficient in eGFR Calculations in the CREDENCE Trial(Wolters Kluwer, 2022) Charytan, David M.; Yu, Jie; Jardine, Meg J.; Cannon, Christopher P.; Agarwal, Rajiv; Bakris, George; Greene, Tom; Levin, Adeera; Pollock, Carol; Powe, Neil R.; Arnott, Clare; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; CREDENCE study investigators; Medicine, School of MedicineBackground and objectives: The effect of including race in the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation on screening, recruitment, and outcomes of clinical trials is unclear. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: The inclusion and outcomes of participants in the Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation (CREDENCE) trial, which randomized individuals with type 2 diabetes and CKD to canagliflozin or placebo, were evaluated after calculating eGFR using the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equation with and without a race-specific coefficient or the 2021 CKD-EPI creatinine equation. Treatment effects were estimated using proportional hazards models and piecewise linear mixed effects models for eGFR slope. Results: Of 4401 randomized participants, 2931 (67%) were White participants, 224 (5%) were Black participants, 877 (20%) were Asian participants, and 369 (8%) participants were other race. Among randomized participants, recalculation of screening eGFR using the 2009 equation without a race-specific coefficient had no effect on the likelihood of non-Black participants meeting inclusion criteria but would have excluded 22 (10%) randomized Black participants for eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Recalculation with the 2021 equation would have excluded eight (4%) Black participants for low eGFR and one (0.4%) Black participant for eGFR≥90 ml/min per 1.73 m2, whereas 30 (0.7%) and 300 (7%) non-Black participants would have been excluded for low and high eGFR, respectively. A high proportion (eight of 22; 36%) of end points in Black participants occurred in individuals who would have been excluded following recalculation using the race-free 2009 equation but not when recalculated with the 2021 equation (one of eight; 13%). Cardiovascular and kidney treatment effects remained consistent across eGFR categories following recalculation with either equation. Changes in estimated treatment effects on eGFR slope were modest but were qualitatively larger following recalculation using the 2021 equation. However, the effect of canagliflozin on chronic change in eGFR was attenuated by 7% among Black participants and increased 6% in non-Black participants. Conclusions: In the CREDENCE trial, eGFR recalculation without the race-specific coefficient had small but potentially important effects on event rates and the relative proportion of Black participants without substantially changing efficacy estimates.Item Renal, Cardiovascular, and Safety Outcomes of Canagliflozin by Baseline Kidney Function: A Secondary Analysis of the CREDENCE Randomized Trial(American Society of Nephrology, 2020-05) Jardine, Meg J.; Zhou, Zien; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; Oshima, Megumi; Agarwal, Rajiv; Bakris, George; Bajaj, Harpreet S.; Bull, Scott; Cannon, Christopher P.; Charytan, David M.; de Zeeuw, Dick; Di Tanna, Gian Luca; Greene, Tom; Heerspink, Hiddo J.L.; Levin, Adeera; Neal, Bruce; Pollock, Carol; Qiu, Rose; Sun, Tao; Wheeler, David C.; Zhang, Hong; Zinman, Bernard; Rosenthal, Norman; Perkovic, Vlado; Medicine, School of MedicineBackground: Canagliflozin reduced renal and cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes in the CREDENCE trial. We assessed efficacy and safety of canagliflozin by initial estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Methods: CREDENCE randomly assigned 4401 participants with an eGFR of 30 to <90 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and substantial albuminuria to canagliflozin 100 mg or placebo. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to analyze effects on renal and cardiovascular efficacy and safety outcomes within screening eGFR subgroups (30 to <45, 45 to <60, and 60 to <90 ml/min per 1.73 m2) and linear mixed effects models to analyze the effects on eGFR slope. Results: At screening, 1313 (30%), 1279 (29%), and 1809 (41%) participants had an eGFR of 30 to <45, 45 to <60, and 60 to <90 ml/min per 1.73 m2, respectively. The relative benefits of canagliflozin for renal and cardiovascular outcomes appeared consistent among eGFR subgroups (all P interaction >0.11). Subgroups with lower eGFRs, who were at greater risk, exhibited larger absolute benefits for renal outcomes. Canagliflozin's lack of effect on serious adverse events, amputations, and fractures appeared consistent among eGFR subgroups. In all subgroups, canagliflozin use led to an acute eGFR drop followed by relative stabilization of eGFR loss. Among those with an eGFR of 30 to <45 ml/min per 1.73 m2, canagliflozin led to an initial drop of 2.03 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Thereafter, decline in eGFR was slower in the canagliflozin versus placebo group (-1.72 versus -4.33 ml/min per 1.73 m2; between-group difference 2.61 ml/min per 1.73 m2). Conclusions: Canagliflozin safely reduced the risk of renal and cardiovascular events, with consistent results across eGFR subgroups, including the subgroup initiating treatment with an eGFR of 30 to <45 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Absolute benefits for renal outcomes were greatest in subgroups with lower eGFR.Item Subgroup selection in adaptive signature designs of confirmatory clinical trials(Wiley, 2017-02) Zhang, Zhiwei; Li, Meijuan; Lin, Min; Soon, Guoxing; Greene, Tom; Shen, Changyu; Department of Medicine, IU School of MedicineThe increasing awareness of treatment effect heterogeneity has motivated flexible designs of confirmatory clinical trials that prospectively allow investigators to test for treatment efficacy for a subpopulation of patients in addition to the entire population. If a target subpopulation is not well characterized in the design stage, it can be developed at the end of a broad eligibility trial under an adaptive signature design. The paper proposes new procedures for subgroup selection and treatment effect estimation (for the selected subgroup) under an adaptive signature design. We first provide a simple and general characterization of the optimal subgroup that maximizes the power for demonstrating treatment efficacy or the expected gain based on a specified utility function. This characterization motivates a procedure for subgroup selection that involves prediction modelling, augmented inverse probability weighting and low dimensional maximization. A cross-validation procedure can be used to remove or reduce any resubstitution bias that may result from subgroup selection, and a bootstrap procedure can be used to make inference about the treatment effect in the subgroup selected. The approach proposed is evaluated in simulation studies and illustrated with real examples.