My name is Steve V Weg and I'm the Associate Director of the Center, and it's a pleasure to welcome you. The Center for Translating Research into practice was started way back on our campus. It was the brain child of Sandra Petrono, Professor Emeritus of Communication Studies, and instituted under the direction of Chancellor Emeritus Charles R Bans, who currently serves as our executive director. The goal of the Center is to recognize and celebrate examples of translational research in our community. So we are delighted today to share with you in our current series of communication, I'm sorry, community conversations with our scholars. And today, we're delighted to have with us, Professor Philip Cochran in our June set. This is the sixth time we're doing this. We're having a great time doing it. So welcome to all of you for being here today. A couple of reminders to get us set up. First of all, some Zoom etiquette. You're probably all aware of this, but please keep your microphones muted. You're welcome to turn your cameras on and off. But at the beginning, we're going to have doctor Cochran give us some background and some information, and then we'll open it up for the conversation. Around that, please put your questions that you have into the chats. We can keep track of those. And we will be able to unmick and turn on our cameras to have some conversation later. I'm assuming that you'll have lots of questions or comments after you hear what he has to share. You will receive a post event evaluation. So please watch for that. Give us some feedback so we know how to improve these sessions and get your ideas about what else you'd like to hear about. If you are interested, we now have continuing education credits available. And you're welcome to sign up for this. After attending ten sessions or so, you can get a whole credit for this. If you need that for your continuing education requirements, it's not a bad idea to just sign up to get this. You are encouraged to follow us on all forms of social media. This is how we try to share information about the exciting things that are going on with all of our translational scholars here at IEPY. Pick the way that you want to do it. We also have a YouTube channel now where we're keeping some of the videos that are being generated by these events, but also when scholars are talking about the work that they do. And because we're an academic institution, we are connected with scholar works. Scholar Works is the campus way of making available to you information that's in journals that you can easily access. If you go, for example, today to doctor Cochran's page on our website, you'll be able to see some more information about him about the work that he's doing. But then also as you scroll down, you'll see a collection of his translational scholarly works that are in scholar works, and you can just click on those links and easily x them without having to go to a journal. So we encourage you to do that. If you want to see all of his works or any of the works by IPY scholars that have been collected in Scholar works, you can go to the Scholar works page directly. This is an easy way for you to get more information about what folks are doing and then to be able to ask questions or be willing to talk with them about their work. Coming up next month in July, we're excited to have with us, Professor Becky Leu Lastrez, who's going to talk about, are we always prepared? And this is timely, Examining risk and crisis management in tourism and hospitality. You can sign up for that at anytime. Go to our website at trip YU and you can see the upcoming list of things that we have going on as we get into the fall semester. But we're not here today to talk about that. We're here to welcome our scholar of the month, Professor Philip Cochran, from School of Business to talk to us about a very interesting topic. So I'm going to stop there. I'm going to stop sharing and invite him to share his screen and to get into today's topic. So welcome, doctor Cochran. Thank you, Stephen. And Lewy and the center, it's a really really an honor to be here. And this really new new form of presentation given the COVID 19. What I want to talk about today are black swans. These are these highly unusual events that can really cause major issues for organizations. And in some ways, the quote here by Harper Lee. This is Judge Taylor in Tequila Mockingbird. People Emily see what they look for and hear what they listen for. And this helps explain why we don't get prepared for these types of events. So, much of my current research these days is looking at black swans and their near relatives. And I won't get into the details and the fine distinctions here, but gray rhinos, invisible gorillas and elephants in the room. Basic, all of these are catastrophic events that occur very infrequently, maybe once every 20 years, once every 50 years, once ever 100 years, perhaps even once every thousand years. And as a result, firms are simply not very well prepared to deal with the consequences. So a quick snapshot of what I'm going to do in the next 25 minutes or so is talk about some of the black swans that might occur in the next ten or 20 years. When I do this in classes, sometimes students get pret bummed at the end of class, I go into a lot more detail than I'll have time for today. You'll get some reflections on why very few countries, organizations, or even individuals tend to get appropriately prepared for these unexpected events, these black swans. And then I'll talk at the end of last five or 7 minutes about how successful organizations have survived and in some cases, even profited by being prepared for the unexpected. But before I do that, I found this quote on the next slide by Warren Buffett to be particularly telling. As you might know, Warren Buffett is probably the world's best investor. He's some years, the world's richest man. And in his 2019 letter to his stockholders, and he does these annual letters every year, and this was February of 2019. He said that a major catastrophe will dwarf Hurricane remember this 2019, February. Katrina and Michael will occur, maybe tomorrow, maybe decades from now, it might be a traditional source. It might be a total surprise. Again, he's really not using the words, but he's talking about the same thing I'm talking about today and that is Black Swan. The man who really brought the term Black Swan into the current consciousness is is Nassim Nicholas Telev who's written a series of terrific books that really everyone needs to read. And what he has said is, I know that history is going to be dominated by an improbable event. I just don't know what that event will be. He argues that basically half of the movement in the stock market can be seen as a function of these highly improbable events, and the other half of the movements are the day to day changes in what corporations are doing. And he makes a point that the central idea of the Black Swan is that rare events cannot be estimated for empirical observation observation since by definition, they are rare. Or you might remember Donald Rumsfeld's famous statement about unknown unknowns. And you know, all the people have made fun of the phrase unknown unknowns. I think he really is hitting on a good point here. It's those unknown unknowns. The things that we don't know are going to surprise us that are the most difficult ones to deal with. And so what I want to do first is talk about pandemics. And Bill Gates recently talked about this current pandemic. It's bad, but the next one might be ten times worse. I might even be worse than ten times worse. In fact, a lot of experts today are suggesting that we're going to see pandemics on the order of COVID 19 or worse once every 20 years or so. And the reason is that the world is becoming so much more interconnected. People are flying everywhere now. They're bringing viruses with them. We are encroaching into parts of the world, jungles in Africa and South America, which people have had very little contact with in the past. And, you know, increasingly, we're likely to see more and more of these, and they could be really catastrophic if we simply are not properly prepared for them. And so we're likely to see supply chain disruptions when this occurs. And again, the reason is the world is becoming so much more integrated. Today, any product you buy has parts literally from all over the world, from China, from Southeast Asia, from Europe, from Africa. All those parts are coming together to make a quality product less expensive. And being lean is really good. The problem is the leaner corporations get, the less buffer they have if something really unusual should happen. So the point is, if you go back 50 years or so, if there was a major flood in China, if there was a fire in a factory in Japan, if something really bad happened with a pandemic in Africa, it would have had trivial effects on the US, for example, because most supply chains were very short. Supply chains lengthened dramatically with the invention of the shipping container. Prior to the shipping container, something that 40 35 to 40% of the cost of shipping goods from Asia was consumed by the cost of getting the goods here. Today it's well less than 5%. And because of that, we had this highly integrated world economy, but it also is becoming more and more fragile. For example, in 2020, a Chrysler Crysler plant had to stop making cars in Slovenia because a single part it couldn't get from China. As we all know, just recently, the Suez Canal blockage stopped factories, literally worldwide, and firms are scrambling about whether they should queue up behind the Suez Canal or sail all the way around Africa or even try to go through the Northwest passage around the top of the world. Another bummer would be nuclear accidents. We probably all remember Fukushima, March 11, 2011. Magnitude 9.0 earthquake. This was a one in 1,000 year earthquake. The people who built the Fukushima plant knew that this could happen once every thousand years. Historically, the geologic record is clear, but they didn't build the plant to survive that kind of an earthquake. That earthquake led to a 50 foot tall tsunami, which overwhelmed the sea walls of the Fukushima Dichi nuclear plant and disabled the backup generators, which were cleverly positioned inside the shells out over protection shells around the nuclear reactors, but they were in the basements of the shells. And so when the Til wave went over the seawall and flooded into the plants, the water worked its way into the protective shells into the basements and flooded out the generators, which would have prevented the nuclear meltdown because the core had to be cooled and the water had to be moved, and the couldn't be done if there was no power. It would have been taken a trivial amount of money, a few million dollar to have put those generators up on the hill, few hundred yards away, buried the conduits deep underground, and, you know, it would have been a nasty accident, but the nuclear power plants would not have melted down. And that led to three meltdowns of the five nuclear power plants, and a massive supply chain disruptions. We some companies didn't even know that they had suppliers of suppliers of suppliers of suppliers, which were making parts for their automobiles, for example, near the Fukushima nuclear plant, and only discovered two or three days later when they eventually learned that ticar plant could no longer be operated because of the nuclear fallout, and they had no backup plans. And even worse than that, there were over 18,000 deaths from that particular disaster. There's a picture of the tsunami coming on shore. I come from I was born and raised in the Pacific Northwest. And I can assure you that summers out there were always very pleasant. We never had air conditioning. I never had a car with Air conditioning. Many of my relatives who still live out there do not have air conditioning. Temperatures today today in Seattle will hit an historic record. They are predicted to hit 107 degrees. Now, back in the dark ages, when I was a youth and living in Seattle, anything over 80 was horrible, terrible, stressful. I couldn't barely, manage it. And here we're talking about temperatures almost 30 degrees higher. So we're going to probably see some collapse of the power grid in the Northwest. Vulnerable residents are probably going to have some health issues, and the historic heat records will be destroyed. Heat records for the entire summer destroyed in June, which is not the hottest month of the year. And again, leading to massive wildfires all over the West. Again, when I grew up, I never saw any smoke in Seattle in the summer. Now my relatives out there all have whole house air filters, and they even have redneck air filters, which is basically a hepa filter, duct taped to a box fan. And You know, that's all new. That's all result of global warming. And so in California, we're seeing this side of Wired magazine, 42,000 foot plumes of ash, 143 mile/hour, fire NATOs, 1,500 degree heat in these infernos. Here's a picture from two years ago from California, a daytime picture. It's so dark, it looks like night, and these are the firemen trying to put out this massive fire, which is threatening one of the towns in California. Continuing on my downward trend here in terms of what we might face in the next 20 years, severe weather issues. Katrina or super storm Sandy. Those are basically now concerned about one and every 20 year events, blizzards. If any of you were here, I wasn't, but I was in Pennsylvania during the blizzard of 2078. I understand that the windshills in Indiana got to -50 degrees Fahrenheit. They were 30 " of snow, but that led to drifts that literally covered up the fronts of some houses. I have students who will tell me stories, their parents related to them about getting in and out of their houses through second floor windows. California is periodically hit by what are called atmospheric rivers when a whole chain of storm starts coming through California and much of the West. The last major one happened in 18 62. This dropped ten feet of water on parts of California. This inundated the central Valley of California under 20 feet of water. So what? Well, California provides 25% of our food in this country. It provides 40% of the food of the vegetables, fruits and nuts of the United States. Huge portion of our food stock. Imagine what happened to 25% of our food stock was knocked out for periods of perhaps several months. Continuing the theme, again, because I was raised in Seattle and enjoyed having Mount Rainier there just 60 miles away looming over the city. If you've been there, it's a glorious sight during the University of Washington Campus, just 5 miles north of Seattle. You can see the entire Seattle Skyline, just 5 miles south, and you can see Mount Reinier above the entire skyline. 14,411 feet tall, a huge strato volcano and just one of several in Washington State. What happens next time that one goes? I have the unique experience of having climb Mount St. Helens before it blew up, and so I've got to picture myself at a place that does not exist because that place is about 1,000 feet above the current summit of Mount St. Helens. So, historically, we have had things called volcanic winters. Mount Tambora, great book on Mount Tambora by the same name blew up in 18 15. It blew 12 cubic miles of magna into the air. It's one of the biggest volcanic explosions in recorded history. Led to the year without a summer. There were at least 10 million deaths worldwide. I also gave birth to a Dracula and the Vampire. These were both written by people who were at Lower Byron's summer retreat on Lake Geneva. In 18 15, it was a dark and stormy summer. And so instead of going out and enjoying the good weather, which didn't exist, they instead had a writing contest, and both Dracula and the Vampire were invented. And Frankenstein I'm sorry Frankenstein was invented at the writing retreat. Led to the invention of the bicycle because all the horses in Europe were killed to be used as food, and the bicycle therefore was invented as alternative means of transportation. Here's a picture of a nice summer day in 18 15 in Europe. It was snowing literally every month in much of Europe in the summer of 18 15. This will happen again. It happens every several hundred years somewhere in the world. These are global events when that much magma is thrown into the atmosphere, it reflects the sunlight, least a dramatic tooling. This might last several years. And at that time, it claimed at least 10 million lies. These days a much larger population. It's hard to imagine what the death toll might be. If a major solar flare hits the earth, it happens about every hundred years. It will cause a Massive loss of all of our computers. Our cars won't work. Our MC books will be dead, our iPhones will be dead. It'll fry all of our manager electronics. According to FMA, the cost of the US would be one to $2,000,000,000,000. There'd be 130 million people without power in the US, and it might push us back to about 1880s in terms of technology and lead to a four to ten year period before we clot our way back to current levels of technology. It one missed us a couple of years ago by by a day. The next big one in the Pacific Northwest will be in the Cascadia Fault lets loose again. It does that by every 350 years. Last time that happened was January 26, 1,700 at about 9:00 P.M. Plus or -30 minutes. Right now, the odds of that build every year. FMA estimates that it's going to hit Seattle sometime 13 chance to Seattle in the next 50 years. FMA has a technical term for what happens when that lets loose. Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate five will be toast. If you know the Northwest, you'll know that Interstate five goes right down the center of Seattle. It's great to start about how we know the exact date is another book as well worth reading. Linked to this on my PowerPoints, I believe will be posted. Here's one definition of toast. This is the Cypress Expressway in Oakland after 1989 earthquake. This is the Loma Prieta earthquake, which occurred during the World Series as some of you might remember. Here's the problem. This was two orders of magnitude. This was 100 times less severe than a magnitude nine. This was a 6.9 earthquake. So what does a magnitude nine look like? Last time we had a magnitude nine in the modern era of photography, apt in Su Diago Chile. Imagine this were Seattle. 90% of the buildings are rubble. This will happen. It's happened 20 times in the last several tens of thousands of years. It happens about every 350 years plus or -200 years. New Madrid on the Mississippi River, New Madrid, Missouri. When that earthquake happened in earthquakes happened in 18 11, 18 12, The Mississippi River ran backwards, Church bells rang in Boston. According to FMA, all hell will break loose when that happens. So think about where you live. And I know some of you are in the catastrophic zone. It's going to happen. So why aren't we ready? As Kamu said, there have been as many plagues as wars in history. Yet always plagues and wars take people equally by surprise. Nine 11th Commission talked about what happened in 9/11. The most important failure was a failure in imagination. Leaders simply didn't understand the magnitude of the threat. So why does that happen? The point is that human decision making is inherently flawed. We are all systematically irrational. This one, Daniel Cuman the Nobel Prize in economics and psychologist, the one the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 for his work in psychology, which has had a dramatic impact on economics. Again, humans have built in irrationalities, which are important. We have to have to survive on a day to day basis. But the problem is, we also rarely learn from history, and we don't practice really sound decision making skills. And you can't teach sound decision making skills. Common decision making errors, crop up time and time again, group think, when everyone in the senior leadership thinks exactly the same. That's what happened at Pearl Harbor in 1941. Recency bias. We don't reflect back in the 1978 blizzard, the last pandemic in 1918 or the last big earthquake in 1,700. The Dunning Kruger effect people tend to think they are brighter than average. 90% of male drivers believe that they are above average. Doesn't make a lot of logical sense, which leads me into something I'm meaning to write a paper on with a couple of female colleagues incidentally, called a male idiot theory. Some of you might enjoy this. This is basically the fact points out the fact that 90% of the Darwin award winners, these people who removed themselves, the Gene pool in a spectacular manner, 90% of those folks were male on that. It's got a p value of 0.001. And this was actually published in BMJ, which used to be the British Medical Journal. Christine Lagarde, who was head of the International Monetary Fund and currently head of the European bank has said, if it was Lehman Sisters, it would be a different world, think of Lehman Brothers going bankrupt or a major investment banking firms in this country. And there's more than a dozen other common decision making areas that we make. So how do you avoid? Scenario planning. So I'm running really quickly to try to get through this next 5 minutes. Create different stories about possible futures. Make sure everyone thinks about what could happen in the future. Bill Gates was talking about the next pandemic in 19 2017. There ten talks you can find about Bill Gates saying, it's going to happen. It's going to be bad. It's going to happen fairly soon. And it happened. No one listened. Scenario planning is your organization's radar. You have to create those stories. You have to create diverse teams. You've got to create teams of men and women, people of different races, people from different nationalities, people of different age groups, people from different socioeconomic backgrounds. And you've got to protect your dissidents. James Mattis, previous Secretary of Defense, under Donald Trump, because Mer thinkers are so important in organizations adaptability. High ranking leaders need to be assigned the job of guiding and even protecting them. You've got to encourage devil's advocates. People who will tell the CEO that they're full of it. You've got to insist on differing opinions. One of my favorite stories was sort about Alfred P Sloan, the legendary head of General Motors, in 1930s, is running a board meeting. He proposed a significant change in GM strategy. Everyone nodded their head and say, Yes, Mr. Sloan, that sounds like a good idea. He said, Anyone disagree with me? None of the board members disagree said, Okay, we're table it until we get someone who disagrees with me. Very few senior executives are willing to even encourage differing opinions. Firms have to have sufficient liquidity, cash on hand, firms did well in COVID 19 crisis, not only had enough cash on hand, Dale's dead lines of credit. They drew down before it really hit badly, but you had to move very quickly on that. Employee skills, you need to know what your employees know. Do you have medical personnel working for you? I've had surgeons who worked for me teaching strategy classes when I was in administration. People who are doing search and rescue, MTP, people who are teachers and Hams, and that sort of thing. You have to provide proper training for your employees and perhaps pay for that training, give them time to do the appropriate training that they can be useful in an emergency. You know, perhaps higher for other skills. Run simulations. What are your strengths and weaknesses? Do what the military does, do war gaming, or red teaming. Try to find unexpected problems. When Hurricane Andrew hit Florida in 1992. Florida Power and Light couldn't get the lines retrung, because the lines people were home because their children were home, because the teachers we were home because the schools weren't open. And they eventually had to, like, bring the children into various Florida power and light offices and bring them in with teachers to actually get free up the lines people to go out and put up the A And in conclusion, those who you well know the story, those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. And a wonderful book by Andy Grove, the legendary founder and first CEO of Intel, only the Paranoid survive. So with that, thank you much, and I will turn it back to Steven and stop my sharing here. Wow, Well, thank you for setting the stage. I can only imagine there will be some questions and some need for conversation. I've encouraged folks in the chat to go ahead and type in your questions, but you also are encouraged to raise your hands so we can know that you might be interested in unmuting and asking a question. As we get started, I want to ask you about the cost of this, because I heard you mention at one point with the the Tsunami and the nuclear reactors, that it was only a few million that could have solved the problem. And that sounds like I'm a social worker. That sounds like a lot of money. So what do you mean when you say when you're talking about the expense of preparing for this and what that would look like for those that are worried about dollars? Well, when you talking about a nuclear reactor, you're talking about billions of dollars and a few million is pocket change. And so when you're talking about billion dollar projects or tens of billions of dollars projects or $1,000,000,000,000 economy, and investment of a few billions of dollars in the US and public health, might have eliminated 99% of what happened in the last year and a half. I'm just appalled by the fact we had basically not sufficient national preparation. And that goes back to not just the last administration, but previous administrations as well. The other example which I love to use in class is a Many years ago, I did a lot of mountain hiking and climbing. I led climbs up Mont Rainier and various other shadow volcanoes. And I always carried to me the ten essentials. And even at my age, I'm looking at maybe when I finally retire to actually do the Pacific Crest trail from the Mexican border to the Canadian border, all 2,460 miles of it. And so I'm on some Facebook sites, which people, 50 years younger are discussing doing the trail. And some people said, you really need to carry a compass. Compass weighs about 1 ounce. The issue is, what's your life worth? You know, the core of my ten essentials, that I got five items are the core of those ten essentials. They were 12.1 ounces. Is your life worth 12.1 ounces? My sense is you could decrease the odds of getting killed in the mountains by about a factor of ten, b carrying 12.1 ounces. Yet time after time after time, is people who get lost in the mountains, don't find their way out. They find their bodies two years later. They're not carrying even a compass or a signal or even a whistle. It just stuns me. It's not expensive. Council left $100. It doesn't weigh much, but people don't do it. And it puzzles me. People are just Don't see the possible risk. Don't believe it can happen to them. Well, regarding that, when you were talking about the likelihood of a su burst coming, that would be pretty significant. It's going to fry everything that we rely on. That makes me wonder, like, what can we individually do? That would be the 12 point 1 ounce, you know, something that would help prepare me for some event like that? I'm thinking like, I want to be prepared. So what would you recommend on that? This is just for Steve, the rest of you don't have to listen, but I want to be prepared for this. Google Faraday box or a Friday bag, FARA DAY. This would be a metal mesh bag, or simply a metal trash can you can put your gear in and put the lid down on it. And The odds are that anything in that would survive. Because usually you have some warning of the actual flare hitting us. You'll see the light from it first, and we might have a day or two or three before the actual flare hit, so it'd be some time to prepare. But I don't know what you do with your car, unless you have a metal mesh blanket, you could throw over it. Because the chips in your car will be fried. If we're on the side of the earth facing the sun when the flare actually hits. Again, roughly every hundred years, this thing happens. Again, it's been over 150 years now. But back during the 18 59 event, telegraphs operated without batteries. They actually removed the batteries from the telegraphs, and they were doing transcontinental telegraph service just because the wires themselves were electrified. They were actually able to see the aurora of Borealis at the equator. The point is, we know this is going to happen. We know that all the major transformers all over the country will be dead. And we don't have an inventory of those transformers. These big round things up on poles. You know, we have enough inventory to, you know, to replace the hurricane damage ones, but we don't have enough inventory anywhere near the enough inventory to replace the all countries. So you've had to get a horse and a farm. Well, I actually have had the pleasure of doing some work over the last ten to 15 years with colleagues at the University of Puerto Rico. And over the last several years, we've had lots of things to deal with. So first, it was Maria, and that was devastating to the island and particularly for power because they were very ill prepared for what what the hurricane did to the power lines because they were all above ground, and you know, the cost of putting it down below was too high, so they didn't do that. But for me, that's a pretty recent example of what you're talking about about how long it would take. And when I talked to my colleagues there, right after the hurricane, they're used to these sort of things, right? They have this sort of event more often than we might hear in Central Indiana. But they figured it would take five to ten years to recover from that one based on other experiences. And so I was struck by your comment about with a solar flare that it could take four to ten years, I believe you said. To really recover from that or to get things back in place, in your example of just not even knowing where transformers are, that could be pretty devastating. That could take a long time. And I can't imagine what it would be like to live without power for more than, you know, a day, let alone six months or five years. And big cut parts of the country without air conditioning or figure about Texas in February. The great Coffee. I'm thinking my coffee or, you know, my shower or whatever those things. But you're right. Yeah, even some of the bigger things, refrigeration for my foods or that sort of thing. We don't really think about perhaps the real impacts of something like that that would be not just an inconvenience for a couple of hours, like we're used to cause things are instant, and they'd be fixed, but you're saying it would take some time. Many areas are now, put in looking at putting in micro grids. These are sort of local energy generation systems, which might be solar plus batteries. And you know, it's interesting to think about a world in which you might have small interlocking power grids. The solution often here is decentralization, as opposed to having everything rely in a single failure point. You have multiple failure points. Yeah, actually, Ney, the Indian University is actually I think is invested on $50 million. That was one of President Mc robe's activities to look at creating more resilience for Indiana University and bringing together firms like Cummins and Lily and other firms in Indiana to talk about how to deal with these types of grid failures and other failures. You know, the other thing which which fascinates me is the fact that There there was some good articles about a year ago about California in Oregon, coastal regions, which were prepared for the Tsunami, and actually found that really helped them be prepared for COVID 19, because they knew that misses Jones up on the hill there needed diabetes drugs. And they had stores of supplies and food and other things ready for a tsunami, but helped them get through COVID as well. So the point I make when I have significant more time is preparing for to be resilient in general can't prepare you for most of these. Something like the asteroid that hit the Yucatan 68 million years ago and killed old land animals, we can't prepare for that one. We're all toasts at that point. But, for things less dramatic, we can get prepared. Um So look in Kathy's comment, availability of new technology and AI businesses and organizations. They are better at assessing. But the issue is Senior Management willing to listen? Another one of my favorite examples which most people aren't familiar with. Any have you heard of World War zero? Some historians call this war World War zero the first modern War with modern weapons and modern tactics, which preceded World War I. This was the Russia Japanese War in the knots of the 19th century. It turned out the Japanese fleet sailed into Port Arthur, the current Dalian, and sunk the Russian Pacific fleet and then declared war on Russia. So, Japan had this thing about, you know, sinking the fleet and then declaring war. Sounds surprisingly familiar. And so some folks in the US Navy thought that maybe we had to test and Pearl Harbor could handle something like this. And so in 1932, there was a red team attack on Pearl Harbor in which two aircraft carriers were tasked with sending fighters into Pearl Harbor and fake bombing, they dropped bags of flour. And the fighters all had blanks in them. Pearl Harbor had, you know, no defense at all. All the ships, including all the six battle ships were sunk and sunk in quotes. All the airplanes on the runways were destroyed and complete surprise, complete destruction of the US Pacific Fleet. Six years later, that was repeated in another war game. Same result, the Pacific Fleet was sunk, and with no casualties at all among the attacking forces, which at that time of US. Admiral Yamamoto educated at Harvard, tried it a third time, this time with real guns and real bombs. And this time, he had basically the same effect except luckily, the battleships, so the carriers were at sea. Okay, Nuris asking the relationship between black swans, Great rhinos, and visible gorillas. Academics love coming up with different terms. U Taleb came up with the term Black Swan and really brought it into the current strategy literature? And so anyone doing strategy today has to talk about Black Swan events. Again, the problem is that Taleb says, those are things you cannot foresee. Those are Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns. Those are getting tackled by, you know, someone you don't see coming at you and you're not anticipating, they've got no defense against. And so Michelle Wocker wrote a book called Gray Rhinos. And she said, Well, what about the events that are out there? Do you see coming? The really big, dramatic ones, and you never get ready. Good example in corporate strategy is Kodak. Kodak saw digital photography coming for ten years. They developed white papers on digital photography. They developed the first digital camera. But my metal image of the Kodak executives, were a bunch of guys in three P suits standing in the middle of a railroad track in the middle of Kansas, seeing a train coming 10 miles away. Hey, Joe, do you see a train coming? I do. T we might want to move. Is not going to get here. So coming coming, so coming and then splat. Kodak was destroyed by digital photography. It saw coming. It didn't react. Those are the gray rhinos and once you should see coming. Let me throw out my favorite gray rhino that maybe none of you have thought of. Population bust. There's a great book that came out earlier this year or maybe it was last year, talking about the possibility that name of the books called Empty planet. The authors point out that you go back two or three generations in most of the world, and families typically had six to eight kids. Then they had four to five kids, then in my generation, there were three kids. In my son's generation, maybe it's one kid. Look what's happening in China, going from forcing people only have one kid to say, it's okay to have two. Now, please have as many as you can. But it's not going to turn around. It's not going to turn around for two reasons. One is urbanization. When you're on farms, it really matters to have free labor. If you had six, eight, ten, 12 kids, you got a lot of free labor. In cities, all of a sudden, you're taking kids to tennis, Lesson, Falt lessons, little league, you know, go down the list, and this is expensive. Singing to private school, send them to A U, that sort of thing. This is all very expensive. And so less kids matters. And so the second reason, probably more important is women. Educated women has a perfect correlation here. The more education, the less kids they want. And so as women become more and more educated all over the world, they want less and less kids, and now with access to birth control, they can do it. And so the authors of Empty Planet argue that in about 30 years, we're going to see just a drop off in world population. There's one country now South Korea, in which the average woman has 0.97 children, less than one child per woman. As you know, 2.1 is replacement rate. And so villages are shrinking all over South Korea. The 20 most industrialized countries in the world without net immigration, are seeing declines in birth rates to the point that the population would start falling. Hungary seeing the elimination of one small town every year, simply because of the drop in birth rates. And they found no way to turn around. I mean, no matter how much you offer educated women, they don't want to go out and have three, six, eight, ten, 12 kids, like the No shaking your head. Like the grandparents did. I do this in class. How many kids are your grandparents, your parents, you, your children. And it's just it's almost a perfect linear graph. And it's not going to turn around. We have to face the world when many of you get old in which there won't be enough people out there in the workforce to support you. On that. I was thinking about as you were talking earlier, in my work, I worked in the area of kids with developmental disabilities and other disabilities. And there's been a pretty strong effort off and on for planning around for like tornadoes or those kind of events to understand about disability, right? And what Being prepared. So that's to me, an example of how to be prepared for things because whatever is good for people with disabilities is good for all of us has been my experience, and we plan about that. But as maybe a final question before we have to finish up today, what do you think we should be doing as a campus, right? As IUPY? You said I U globally had put some resources there, but what do you recommend to all of us that are part of this campus community that we should be doing as a result of what you've shared with us today? Well, I know that many of my colleagues were pretty unhappy during COVID, having to pivot and teach remotely. But I think it'd be wise to spend the effort to train everyone on the latest tools, keep everyone properly trained and perhaps make sure they have the appropriate equipment at home. I've been in too many faculty meetings where people are simply using their laptops. The speakers on laptops are crummy, the microphones are lousy, and they're teaching with those. You spend 100 bucks on a good microphone, 100 bucks on a good camera, plug those into a laptop, and you've got a much better experience. And so although COVID forced us all to learn this technology, I think it'd be good to keep our guard up because may happen again. So the other problem we're going to face, of course, is going to be the enrollment cliff is coming up. We're looking at the enrollment clip cliff in two or three years. And everyone thinks they're going to avoide it, but we're not. It's not going to bounce back up again. We're going to have less students in ten years we have today, we have less students in 20 years than we have today, and we've got to start planning for that today. If we don't, we're going to overbuild on the physical side and under build on the intellectual side. Wow. You've given us a lot of things to think about. And I can't thank you enough for helping us engage in this conversation. And I hope that people are intrigued and interested to learn more. You've given us a lot of resources. And as you did mention, Nuri, our amazing program assistant, will send out a copy of the PowerPoint, as well as you'll get an invitation to do an evaluation today to give us some additional thoughts about what to do for this event. We want to end early enough so that you have time to go prepare for your next Zoom meeting at 1:00 and to get a chance to do what you need to do. So thank you for joining us today. You could join us again next month on July 23 for our next community conversation with our scholar of the month. Be sure to visit us on the web at trippy dot EDU to learn all about our amazing translational scholars and the work that they're doing. And give us a call or give us an e mail, if you have an idea or you want to interact with us in some other way. So thank you for attending, and we'll look forward to seeing you another time, and let's give a round of virtual applause. To doctor Cochran for his work. Thank you so much.