Lin, LanXue, YufengSong, Fengguang2018-04-122018-04-122017Lin, L., Xue, Y., & Song, F. (2017). A simpler and more direct derivation of system reliability using markov chain usage models. Presented at the Proceedings of the International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering, SEKE (pp. 462–466). https://doi.org/10.18293/SEKE2017-091https://hdl.handle.net/1805/15838Markov chain usage-based statistical testing has been around for more than two decades, and proved sound and effective in providing audit trails of evidence in certifying software-intensive systems. The system end-to-end reliability is derived analytically in closed form, following an arc-based Bayesian model. System reliability is represented by an important statistic called single use reliability, and defined as the probability of a randomly selected use being successful. This paper reviews the analytical derivation of the single use reliability mean, and proposes a simpler, faster, and more direct way to compute the expected value that renders an intuitive explanation. The new derivation is illustrated with two examples.enPublisher Policystatistical testingMarkov chain usage modelssystem reliabilityArticle